Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
