Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
