A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to address. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.